To appear, European Journal of Operational Research. Case Study on Statistically Estimating Minimum Makespan for Flow Line Scheduling Problems

Lower bounds are typically used to evaluate the performance of heuristics for solving combinatorial minimization problems. In the absence of tight analytical lower bounds, optimal objective-function values may be estimated statistically. In this paper, extreme value theory is used to construct confidence-interval estimates of the minimum makespan achievable when scheduling nonsimilar groups of jobs on a two-stage flow line. Experimental results based on randomly sampled solutions to each of 180 randomly generated test problems revealed that (i) least-squares parameter estimators outperformed standard analytical estimators for the Weibull approximation to the distribution of the sample minimum makespan; (ii) to evaluate each Weibull fit reliably, both the Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests should be used; and (iii) applying a local improvement procedure to a large sample of randomly generated initial solutions improved the probability that the resulting Weibull fit yielded a confidence interval covering the minimum makespan.